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-webkit= -text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #202020; font-fam= ily: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left; pad= ding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 18px;"> = <div style=3D"text-align: center;"><span style=3D"font-size:12px">Algu=C3= =A9m te encaminhou esse e-mail? Receba em primeira m=C3=A3o se cadastrand= o <a href=3D"https://click.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMzY5ODIyODMyODg3O= DYzMjcyJmM9cjhmNCZlPTEwNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MjYyJmQ9dzluMWsxdA=3D=3D.Un2Ln= tWDLfE0EsOznQCRce23HOWGqdJ-jJi_UzO0p24" data-link-id=3D"325145262" target= =3D"_blank" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust:= 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #007C89; font-weight: norma= l; text-decoration: underline;">aqui</a>.</span></div> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> <!--[if mso]> = </td> <![endif]--> =20 <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" ce= llpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock" = style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspa= ce: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-= width: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D"mcnIma= geBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-heigh= t-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 10= 0%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0"= cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspa= ce: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-= width: 100%;"> <tbody= > <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnImageCo= ntent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-si= ze-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padd= ing-left: 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <img ali= gn=3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5b044c821397f= 7cb82052c45d/images/974086be-c203-416e-9084-e273dfe46c2d.png" width=3D"20= 0" style=3D"border: 0; height: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none= ; -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; max-width: 200px; padding-bottom: 0; v= ertical-align: bottom; display: inline;" =20 class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </table> = </td> </tr> <tr>= <td valign=3D"top" id=3D"templateBody" style= =3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-te= xt-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: #FFFFFF; background-image: none; = background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: center; background-siz= e: cover; border-top: 0; border-bottom: 2px solid #EAEAEA; padding-top: 0= ; padding-bottom: 9px;"> =20 <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" cl= ass=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace= : 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-si= ze-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> <= tbody class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D"top" cla= ss=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text= -size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-top: 9px;"> = <!--[if mso]> <table a= lign=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" width=3D"1= 00%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td valign=3D"top" width=3D= "600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0= " cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspa= ce: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-= width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" width=3D"100%" = class=3D"mcnTextContentContainer"> = <tbody> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D= "mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-= size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #202020; font-family: H= elvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left; padding-t= op: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 18px;"> = <p data-se= lectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"50f9" style=3D"margin: 10px 0; padding: 0; = mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; f= ont-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">Domingo, 1 de Mar=C3= =A7o.<br> = <br> Fazia 9 dias desde que o primeiro caso havia sido confirmado na= It=C3=A1lia. =C3=80quela hora, a Europa, inevitavelmente, j=C3=A1 estava= tomada.<br> = <br> Quatro noites antes, o v=C3=ADrus havia chegado ao Brasil.<b= r> <b= r> A despeito da aparente calma dos m=C3=A9dicos, as manchetes e os gover= nos agiam como se a imin=C3=AAncia de um colapso global estivesse pr=C3=B3= ximo. Os investidores, claro, amplificavam ainda = mais o tom hist=C3=A9rico.<br= > <br= > Shorteados comemoravam =E2=80=94 com m=C3=A9rito =E2=80=94 a derrocada = das bolsas.<br> =20 <br> Investidor= es de longo prazo =E2=80=94 que, como sempre, contrariam as palavras de s= eu guru, estando comprados e praticamente sem caixa =E2=80=94 agarravam-s= e aos seus exemplares do =E2=80=9CInvestidor Inteligente=E2=80=9D, = na esperan=C3= =A7a de alguma palavra de conforto perante a queda de 7% do Ibovespa.<br>= <br>= Foi diante desse cen=C3=A1rio que, cansado do alarmismo, decidi p=C3=B4r= em pr=C3=A1tica um exerc=C3=ADcio que todos deveriam fazer (n=C3=A3o ape= nas em tempos ca=C3=B3ticos): colocar no papel =E2=80=94 ou, nesse caso, = no Tw= itter =E2=80=94 o que eu acreditava que iria acontecer.<br> = <br> A raz=C3=A3o = de colocar as coisas no papel =C3=A9 bem simples: ao escrever, voc=C3=AA = se for=C3=A7a a refletir se o que est=C3=A1 sendo dito ali realmente faz sentido, segue uma l=C3=B3gica, ou =C3=A9 mera influ=C3= =AAncia = do burburinho que chega aos seus ouvidos diaramente.<br> = <br> Experimente e= screver que o Ibovespa subir=C3=A1 15% amanh=C3=A3.<br> = <br> Imediatamente&nbs= p;um desconforto vir=C3=A1 =C3=A0 tona e voc=C3=AA se questionar=C3=A1: a= lguma vez na vida eu vi o =C3=ADndice de a=C3=A7=C3=B5es brasileiro subir= tanto assim em um =C3=BAnico dia?<br> = <br> Que milagre divino poderia garanti= r isso?<br> = <br> Agora experimente passar 1 semana no Twitter/Instagram/Whatsa= pp com todos que voc=C3=AA conhece dizendo que o Ibovespa subir=C3=A1 15%= por uma raz=C3=A3o que =C3=A9 =C3=B3bvia para eles (e que voc=C3=AA acab= a =20 assumindo que =C3=A9 =C3=B3bvia tamb=C3=A9m, do mesmo j= eito que ri de uma piada quando todos riem, mesmo que n=C3=A3o tenha feit= o sentido algum para voc=C3=AA).<br> = </p> = <h3 class=3D"null" data-selectable-paragr= aph=3D"" style=3D"display: block; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: #202020; = font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 20px; font-style: normal; font-weight:= bold; line-height: 125%; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left;">Curt= o Prazo</h3> = </td> </tr> = </tbody> = </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width= =3D"100%" class=3D"mcnCodeBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-= table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -we= bkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody= class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> <tr= > <td valign=3D"top" class=3D= "mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size= -adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = </td> </tr> = </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock= " style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rs= pace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; mi= n-width: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D"mcnI= mageBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-hei= ght-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = 100%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"= 0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer"= style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rsp= ace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min= -width: 100%;"> <tbod= y> <tr> = =20 <td class=3D"mcnImageContent" = valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adju= st: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padding-lef= t: 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <a href=3D"https= ://click.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMzY5ODIyODMyODg3ODYzMjcyJmM9cjhmNCZ= lPTEwNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MjY0JmQ9cDVyMHQ1bA=3D=3D.bK7U8ISss1ZOP8lmCjBviCe= AR6gyLh_aJ0ezQ6Cg5FI" data-link-id=3D"325145264" title=3D"" class=3D"" ta= rget=3D"_blank" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adj= ust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = <img align=3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.c= om/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/images/107b1e0e-671b-4448-906d-c4f777deb7d8.= png" width=3D"516" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: 0; h= eight: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; max-width: 516px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline;" class=3D"mcn= Image"> </a> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </tab= le> </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> <= table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" cla= ss=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace:= 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-siz= e-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> <t= body class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule:= exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; pad= ding-top: 9px;"> <!--[if = mso]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpaddin= g=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td val= ign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D= "0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collaps= e; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 10= 0%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" wi= dth=3D"100%" class=3D= "mcnTextContentContainer"> = <tbody> <tr= > =20 <td valign=3D"top" class= =3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size= -adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; co= lor: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%;= text-align: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9= px; padding-left: 18px;"> = <p data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"e1ef" style=3D"= margin: 10px 0; padding: 0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-= adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #202020; font-family= : Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">Comec= ei a thread com o que era fato: <strong>o coronav=C3=ADrus estava sim afe= tando a economia.</strong><br> = <br> O PMI Industrial chin=C3=AAs, um =C3=ADndi= ce feito atrav=C3=A9s de uma pesquisa com 700 das maiores ind=C3=BAstrias= da China e que, resumidamente, mostra o qu=C3=A3o bem est=C3=A1 indo a econo= mia do pa=C3=ADs asi=C3=A1tico, = reportou o pior valor desde que come=C3=A7ou a= ser calculado, em 2004.</p> = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> = </table> <![endif]--> = </td> </tr> = </tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacin= g=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adj= ust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnImageBlockOuter"> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-= size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding: 9px;" class=3D= "mcnImageBlockInner"> <ta= ble align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspac= ing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer" style=3D"border-collapse: co= llapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjus= t: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnImageContent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webk= it-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padding-left: 9px; padding= -top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <img align=3D"center" alt=3D""= src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/images/57b324= 69-2774-4bfd-ac05-589100488e77.png" width=3D"542" style=3D"border: 0; hei= ght: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; -ms-interpolation-mode: = bicubic; max-width: 542px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align: bottom; dis= play: inline;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> </tbody= > </table> = </td> =20 </tr> </tbody> = </table> <table bo= rder=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mc= nTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; ms= o-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust= : 100%; min-width: 100%;"> <tbody cla= ss=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcn= TextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adj= ust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-top: 9px;"> = <!--[if mso]> <table align=3D"l= eft" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" width=3D"100%" styl= e=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td valign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cell= spacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; = mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adju= st: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" width=3D"100%" = class=3D"mcnTextContentContainer">= <tbody> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextC= ontent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100= %; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #202020= ; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align:= left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9px; padding-= left: 18px;"> =20 <p data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"c135" style=3D"margin: 10= px 0; padding: 0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 10= 0%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetic= a; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">Com cidades iso= ladas em quarentena, voos para o pa=C3=ADs cancelados e feriados for=C3=A7= adamente prolongados, o impacto econ=C3=B4mico era evidente e inevit=C3=A1= vel.<br> = <br> No entanto, olhando de forma mais fria, esse caos todo n=C3=A3o = foi criado pelo v=C3=ADrus em si, mas pelo tratamento dado a ele.<br> = <br> Do = mesmo modo que a quimioterapia debilita um paciente na tentativa de conte= r a propaga=C3=A7=C3=A3o da doen=C3=A7a, as medidas extremas tomadas pelo= s governos na tentativa de evitar que o Covid-19 = se tornasse uma pandemia =E2=80= =94 uma epidemia que deixou de ser localizada e passou a afligir uma grande regi=C3=A3o ou= continente =E2=80=94 dizimou, nesse momento, o bom andamento da atividad= e econ=C3=B4mica.<br> = <br> =C3=8Anfase em <strong>=E2=80=9Cnesse momento=E2=80= =9D</strong>.<br> = <br> O v=C3=ADrus, de acordo com a opini=C3=A3o de todos os = m=C3=A9dicos que eu conversei, n=C3=A3o =C3=A9 uma amea=C3=A7a s=C3=A9ria= =C3=A0 humanidade.<br> = <br> Ok, voc=C3=AA pode pensar que eles =E2=80=9Cest=C3= =A3o escondendo o jogo=E2=80=9D.<br> = <br> S=C3=B3 pe=C3=A7o que imagine o n=C3= =ADvel de coordena=C3=A7=C3=A3o necess=C3=A1ria para fazer com que desde = um pesquisador da UFRJ at=C3=A9 o m=C3=A9dico do Albert Einstein digam a = mesma coisa: o v=C3=ADrus =C3=A9 um problema para = idosos e pessoas que j=C3=A1= possuam outra doen=C3=A7a s=C3=A9ria. N=C3=B3s mal conseguimos organizar um churrasco, quanto mais = uma conspira=C3=A7=C3=A3o a n=C3=ADvel global.</p> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </t= able> <!--[if mso]> <= /td> <![endif]--> <!= --[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> = </td> </tr= > </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" cellpa= dding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock" styl= e=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: = 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-widt= h: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D"mcnImageBlock= Outer"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule:= exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; pad= ding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellpa= dding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer" style=3D= "border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt;= -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 1= 00%;"> <tbody> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnImageContent" v= align=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjus= t: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padding-left= : 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <img align=3D"cent= er" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/i= mages/f7ff488a-bc8f-43f6-81db-16731b8a4f9c.jpeg" width=3D"564" style=3D"b= order: 0; height: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; -ms-interpo= lation-mode: bicubic; max-width: 700px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align= : bottom; display: inline;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </table> = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> =20 <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"10= 0%" class=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-= lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-t= ext-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D"to= p" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -m= s-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-top: 9p= x;"> <!--[if mso]> <t= able align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" widt= h=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td valign=3D"top" = width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellpadd= ing=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0= pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-= adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" width=3D"100%" = class=3D"mcnTextContentContain= er"> <tbody> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnT= extContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust:= 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #20= 2020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-al= ign: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9px; padd= ing-left: 18px;"> = <p data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"cea1" style=3D"margin: = 10px 0; padding: 0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #20202= 0; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align= : left;">O que =C3=A0 primeira vista parecia o colapso do capitalismo, qu= ando analisado friamente mostra o =C3=B3bvio: a surpresa seria se o PMI n= =C3=A3o tivesse sido horr=C3=ADvel.<br> = <br> As f=C3=A1bricas ficaram fechadas= por quase um m=C3=AAs e o toque de recolher varreu as ruas de uma das ma= iores cidades chinesas. O que voc=C3=AAs esperavam, que a ind=C3=BAstria = crescesse?<br> = <br> Sim, esse =C3=A9 um efeito de <strong>curto prazo</st= rong>.<br> = <br> N=C3=A3o, talvez n=C3=A3o tenhamos chegado no fundo do po=C3=A7= o ainda.<br> = <br> A =C3=BAnica certeza que temos at=C3=A9 aqui =C3=A9 que toda= cartomante acerta a previs=C3=A3o uma vez na vida.<br> = <br> Em eventos bin=C3=A1rios, como num cara ou coroa, sempre= haver=C3=A1 um ganhador.<br> = <br> Isso n=C3=A3o significa ele previu o futuro= , apenas que se enquadrou na estat=C3=ADstica.</p> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </t= able> <!--[if mso]> <= /td> <![endif]--> <!= --[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> = </td> </tr= > </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock= " style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rs= pace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; mi= n-width: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D"mcnI= mageBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-hei= ght-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = 100%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"= 0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer"= style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rsp= ace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min= -width: 100%;"> <tbod= y> <tr> = =20 <td class=3D"mcnImageContent" = valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adju= st: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padding-lef= t: 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <a href=3D"https= ://click.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMzY5ODIyODMyODg3ODYzMjcyJmM9cjhmNCZ= lPTEwNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MjY2JmQ9YTRxMWcwbw=3D=3D.l0iefZ95kwpeDdLlMKC_b8r= EO6ckbp-cf82dw4C6vWU" data-link-id=3D"325145266" title=3D"" class=3D"" ta= rget=3D"_blank" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adj= ust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = <img align=3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.c= om/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/images/252d4b16-f584-469c-bbfc-6fd3a87e9b1d.= png" width=3D"564" style=3D"-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; border: 0; h= eight: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; max-width: 1701px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline;" class=3D"mcn= Image"> </a> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </tab= le> </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> <= table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" cla= ss=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace:= 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-siz= e-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> <t= body class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule:= exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; pad= ding-top: 9px;"> <!--[if = mso]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpaddin= g=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td val= ign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D= "0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collaps= e; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 10= 0%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" wi= dth=3D"100%" class=3D= "mcnTextContentContainer"> = <tbody> <tr= > =20 <td valign=3D"top" class= =3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size= -adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; co= lor: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%;= text-align: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9= px; padding-left: 18px;"> = <h3 class=3D"null" style=3D"display: block; margin: 0; = padding: 0; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 20px; font= -style: normal; font-weight: bold; line-height: 125%; letter-spacing: nor= mal; text-align: left;">Longo Prazo</h3> = <p data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"= cd74" style=3D"margin: 10px 0; padding: 0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;= -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #2020= 20; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;"><br> Replicando o t=C3=ADtulo de um infame filme de a=C3= =A7=C3=A3o: no longo prazo, o desafio agora =C3=A9 outro.<br> = <br> O maio= r risco, obviamente, n=C3=A3o =C3=A9 essa queda brusca da atividade econ=C3= =B4mica que est=C3=A1 acontecendo. O impacto disso no fluxo de caixa desc= ontado (se voc=C3=AA n=C3=A3o sabe o que =C3=A9 isso, deveria = dar uma olhada n= o nosso curso) =C3=A9 praticamente nulo.<br> = <br> Uma =C3=B3tima forma de test= ar esse fen=C3=B4meno na pr=C3=A1tica =C3=A9 perguntar para qualquer pess= oa que voc=C3=AA conhe=C3=A7a que tenha uma empresa se ela est=C3=A1 disp= osta a vend=C3=AA-la por um pre=C3=A7o menor do que = estava h=C3=A1 1 ano atr=C3= =A1s.<br> = <br> Garanto que a resposta vai ser um suntuoso =E2=80=9CN=C3=A3o=E2=80=9D.<br> = <br> = <strong>Por que, ent=C3=A3o, a bolsa caiu tant= o?</strong><br> = <br> Os que se aventuram a tentar explicar o que acontece no m= ercado de a=C3=A7=C3=B5es est=C3=A3o fadados ao fracasso. Claro, todo jor= nal surgir=C3=A1 com uma explica=C3=A7=C3=A3o =E2=80=94 tirada do al=C3=A9= m =E2=80=94 para o que levou = a bolsa a subir ou cair hoje.<br> = <br> A maioria delas= , entretanto, n=C3=A3o faz o menor sentido. E eu n=C3=A3o culpo os jornal= istas. Voc=C3=AA n=C3=A3o pode pagar algu=C3=A9m para explicar algo e rec= lamar dele ter surgido com uma resposta.<br> = <br> Evitando cair nesse erro de = tentar explicar porque as pessoas agem como agem, vou me reter a mostrar o que eu considero que =C3=A9 o verdadeiro perigo em t= odo esse caos causado pelo coronav=C3=ADrus.<br> = <br> H=C3=A1 algum tempo, o c= rescimento da China vem desacelerando. Claro, ela ainda cresce a passos d= e elefante, mas o ritmo est=C3=A1 cada vez =E2=80=9Cmenos r=C3=A1pido=E2=80= =9D.</p> </t= d> </tr> = </tbody> = </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![= endif]--> </td> = </tr> </tb= ody> </table> = =20 <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" cl= ass=3D"mcnCaptionBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lsp= ace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text= -size-adjust: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D= "mcnCaptionBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnCaptionBlockInner= " valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-ad= just: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding: 9px;"> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" c= ellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnCaptionBottomContent" styl= e=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: = 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = <tbody> = <tr> = =20 <td class=3D"mcnCaptionBottomImageContent" align=3D"= center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-s= ize-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding: 0 9px 9px 9px;= "> <im= g alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/ima= ges/1d22f32c-3d69-4048-9726-978ef7569bbc.png" width=3D"564" style=3D"bord= er: 0; height: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; -ms-interpolat= ion-mode: bicubic; vertical-align: bottom; max-width: 851px;" = class=3D"mcnImag= e"> </td> = </tr> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnTextContent" valign=3D= "top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #202= 020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-ali= gn: left; padding: 0 9px 0 9px;" = width=3D"564"> = <div style=3D"text-align: center;"><span st= yle=3D"font-size:12px"><span class=3D"mc-toc-title">(<a href=3D"https://c= lick.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMzY5ODIyODMyODg3ODYzMjcyJmM9cjhmNCZlPTE= wNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MjY4JmQ9cjVoMGY4Yg=3D=3D.zr1AFZ5plZIAPLkLrh8Fxu7b8SV= cqDDh9_EuY9tIkyQ" data-link-id=3D"325145268" target=3D"_blank" style=3D"m= so-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-si= ze-adjust: 100%; color: #007C89; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: un= derline;">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=3D20= 18&locations=3DCN&start=3D2000</a>)</span></span> = </div> = =20 </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D= "100%" class=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-tab= le-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webki= t-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D= "top" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly;= -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-top: 9px;"> <!--[= if mso]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpad= ding=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--= > <!--[if mso]> <td = valign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border= =3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: coll= apse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust:= 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;"= width=3D"100%" class= =3D"mcnTextContentContainer"> = <tbody> = <tr> <td val= ign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exact= ly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: b= reak-word; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-= height: 150%; text-align: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padd= ing-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 18px;"> = Junto a isso, a economia europeia segue pr= aticamente estagnada. A m=C3=A9dia de crescimento desde os anos 2000 na Z= ona do Euro foi de 1,36%. = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> = </table> <![endif]--> </t= d> </tr> =20 </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D= "0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnCaptionBlock" style=3D"b= order-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -= ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnCaptionBlockOuter"> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnCaptionBlockInner" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line= -height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adju= st: 100%; padding: 9px;"> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"= class=3D"mcnCaptionBottomContent" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; ms= o-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -= webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;"> = =20 <tbody> <tr= > <td class=3D= "mcnCaptionBottomImageContent" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"m= so-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-si= ze-adjust: 100%; padding: 0 9px 9px 9px;"> = <img alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcuserc= ontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/images/4c6172ad-96bd-464d-a019-b821d= afc7195.png" width=3D"564" style=3D"border: 0; height: auto; outline: non= e; text-decoration: none; -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; vertical-align= : bottom; max-width: 858px;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> = <tr> =20 <td class=3D"mcnTextContent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-h= eight-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust= : 100%; word-break: break-word; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; f= ont-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left; padding: 0 9px 0 9px= ;" width=3D= "564"> <d= iv style=3D"text-align: center;"><span style=3D"font-size:12px">(<a href=3D= "https://click.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMzY5ODIyODMyODg3ODYzMjcyJmM9c= jhmNCZlPTEwNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MjcwJmQ9bzJ4NHA4bA=3D=3D.00nsd-Hij7BavLjGO= sqVH_xthOBCh7PfLvcERGrwGew" data-link-id=3D"325145270" target=3D"_blank" = style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webk= it-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #007C89; font-weight: normal; text-deco= ration: underline;">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=3D= 2018&locations=3DEU&start=3D2018&view=3Dmap</a>)</span></div>= </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> = </td> </tr> = </tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellsp= acing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collaps= e: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-= adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> =20 <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line= -height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adju= st: 100%; padding-top: 9px;"> = <!--[if mso]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"= 0" cellpadding=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <= ![endif]--> <!--[if mso]= > <td valign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![end= if]--> <table align=3D"le= ft" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-coll= apse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-si= ze-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-wid= th: 100%;" width=3D"100%" = class=3D"mcnTextContentContainer"> = <tbody> = =20 <tr> <td val= ign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exact= ly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-brea= k: break-word; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; l= ine-height: 150%; text-align: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; = padding-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 18px;"> = Observando esse crescimento p=C3=ADfio= , os Bancos Centrais v=C3=AAm jogando lenha na caldeira econ=C3=B4mica, r= eduzindo ano ap=C3=B3s ano as taxas de juros, na tentativa de facilitar a= tomada de empr=C3=A9stimos e reaquecer as coisas. = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </ta= ble> <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![endif]--> = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" c= ellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock"= style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rsp= ace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min= -width: 100%;"> <tbody class=3D"mcnIm= ageBlockOuter"> <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-heig= ht-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 1= 00%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0= " cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer" st= yle=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace= : 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-wi= dth: 100%;"> <tbody> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnImageCont= ent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size= -adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; paddin= g-left: 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <img align= =3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb820= 52c45d/images/02af8767-5ca2-4106-8b7c-860ef387b5ca.png" width=3D"528" sty= le=3D"border: 0; height: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; -ms-= interpolation-mode: bicubic; max-width: 528px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> </td> = </tr> <= /tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"= 100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-tab= le-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webki= t-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnImageBlockOuter"> = <tr> <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adju= st: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImag= eBlockInner"> <table alig= n=3D"left" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0= " class=3D"mcnImageContentContainer" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; = mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;= -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody> = <tr> = <td class=3D"mcnImageContent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-l= ine-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-a= djust: 100%; padding-right: 9px; padding-left: 9px; padding-top: 0; paddi= ng-bottom: 0; text-align: center;"> = <img align=3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c821397f7cb82052c45d/images/4fa4d0d= a-b97f-45cc-8450-fc1385abd5bc.png" width=3D"525" style=3D"border: 0; heig= ht: auto; outline: none; text-decoration: none; -ms-interpolation-mode: b= icubic; max-width: 525px; padding-bottom: 0; vertical-align: bottom; disp= lay: inline;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> </tbody>= </table> = </td> = </tr> </tbody> = </table> <table border=3D"0" = cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock= " style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adju= st: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> <tbody c= lass=3D"mcnImageBlockOuter"> <tr>= <td valign=3D"top" style=3D"= mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-s= ize-adjust: 100%; padding: 9px;" class=3D"mcnImageBlockInner"> = <table align=3D"left" width=3D"100%= " border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" class=3D"mcnImageConte= ntContainer" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; m= so-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjus= t: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody> <t= r> <td class=3D= "mcnImageContent" valign=3D"top" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; padding-right= : 9px; padding-left: 9px; padding-top: 0; padding-bottom: 0; text-align: = center;"> = <img align=3D"center" alt=3D"" src=3D"https://mcusercontent.com/5b044c= 821397f7cb82052c45d/images/3d16dc6f-ca47-4d2f-beaf-1914f27a4413.png" widt= h=3D"524" style=3D"border: 0; height: auto; outline: none; text-decoratio= n: none; -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; max-width: 524px; padding-botto= m: 0; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline;" = class=3D"mcnImage"> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> = </table> </td> = </tr> =20 </tbody> </table> = <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspaci= ng=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnTextBlock" style=3D"border-collapse: = collapse; mso-table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adj= ust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; min-width: 100%;"> = <tbody class=3D"mcnTextBlockOuter"> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D"mcnTextBlockInner" style=3D"mso-line-heig= ht-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 1= 00%; padding-top: 9px;"> = <!--[if mso]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" ce= llpadding=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![end= if]--> <!--[if mso]> = <td valign=3D"top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--= > =20 <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" ce= llpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso= -table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -w= ebkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" width=3D= "100%" class=3D"mcnTe= xtContentContainer"> = <tbody> <tr> = <td valign=3D"to= p" class=3D"mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-t= ext-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-= word; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-heigh= t: 150%; text-align: left; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-b= ottom: 9px; padding-left: 18px;"> = Esse =C3=A9 um elefante que n=C3=B3s, economist= as e investidores, temos ignorado h=C3=A1 algum tempo, na esperan=C3=A7a de = que ele simplesmente se levante e saia da sala sem quebrar nada.<br> = <br> Reduzir = as taxas b=C3=A1sicas de juros a patamares pr=C3=B3ximos de zero (ou at=C3= =A9 mesmo negativo, no caso do Jap=C3=A3o) =C3=A9 o jeito rebuscado e =E2= =80=9Ceconom=C3=AAs=E2=80=9D de imprimir dinheiro.<br> = <br> De forma muito resumid= a, a taxa de juros mais baixa torna menos rent=C3=A1vel o dinheiro que os= bancos (Ita=C3=BA, Bradesco, Santander) deixam parado em uma =E2=80=9Cre= nda-fixa=E2=80=9D da vida.<br> = <br> A tend=C3=AAncia seria que eles come=C3=A7asse= m a emprestar mais dinheiro, principalmente para as empresas, evitando qu= e seu <strong>rendimento ca=C3=ADsse</strong>.<br> = <br> Quando falamos em imprimir= dinheiro, a primeira coisa que vem na cabe=C3=A7a de uma pessoa comum =C3=A9: <strong>infla=C3=A7=C3=A3o</strong>. E esse raci= oc=C3=ADnio n=C3=A3o est=C3=A1 pra l=C3=A1 de todo errado. Por muito = tempo, a cham= ada =E2=80=9CTeoria Quantitativa de Moeda=E2=80=9D imperou entre os econo= mistas acad=C3=AAmicos.<br> = <br> O que ela diz, basicamente, =C3=A9 que quanto mai= or a quantidade de moeda (dinheiro) em circula=C3=A7=C3=A3o, maior o n=C3= =ADvel de pre=C3=A7os. Em outras palavras, infla=C3=A7=C3=A3o.<br> = <br> Pra alegri= a de muitos e tristeza de outros, a rela=C3=A7=C3=A3o entre dinheiro e in= fla=C3=A7=C3=A3o prevista por essa teoria simplesmente parece ter parado = de funcionar.<br> = <br> Ao contr=C3=A1rio do que era previsto, ap=C3=B3s reduzir as= taxas de juros a patamares pr=C3=B3ximos de zero, os pa=C3=ADses n=C3=A3= o passaram a lutar contra uma infla=C3=A7=C3=A3o devastadora.<br> = =20 <br> Pra espanto de todos, o que ve= m acontecendo =C3=A9 justamente o contr=C3=A1rio: os governos est=C3=A3o = sendo incomodados por uma estranha tend=C3=AAncia =C3=A0 defla=C3=A7=C3=A3= o.<br> <b= r> A pol=C3=ADtica monet=C3=A1ria expansionista (em bom portugu=C3=AAs, r= edu=C3=A7=C3=A3o da taxa de juros), sempre foi tida como uma ferramenta g= arantida para estimular a economia.<br> = <br> Nos =C3=BAltimos anos, ningu=C3=A9m t= em mais certeza se ela =C3=A9 t=C3=A3o garantida assim.<br> = <br> Apesar das taxas = estarem pr=C3=B3ximas de zero, o crescimento continua baixo e n=C3=A3o h=C3= =A1 nenhum sinal de infla=C3=A7=C3=A3o =C3=A0 vista.<br> = <br> Os Bancos Centrais t= em aplicado esse =E2=80=9Crem=C3=A9dio=E2=80=9D h=C3=A1 alguns anos. E n=C3= =A3o vai ser agora, com a necessidade de dar uma resposta aos inquietos investidores, que eles v=C3=A3o mudar o tratamento.<br> = <br> Enquanto eu escrevia = aquele Tweet, os BCs ainda n=C3=A3o tinham se reunido para deliberar sobr= e um novo corte coordenado. Tudo o que rolava era um boato sobre isso.<br= > <br> Ho= je, enquanto escrevo essa carta, o FED anunciou que vai cortar a taxa b=C3= =A1sica americana em 0,5 p.p. e que os outros pa=C3=ADses do G7 devem faz= er o mesmo.<br> = <br> = <strong>=C3=89 a=C3=AD que mora o perigo.</strong><br> = <br> A pol=C3=ADtica mon= et=C3=A1ria est=C3=A1 ficando de m=C3=A3os atadas. Conforme as taxas v=C3= =A3o se reduzindo, o impacto na economia de um novo corte torna-se cada v= ez menor. Al=C3=A9m disso existe um certo =E2=80=9Cpiso=E2=80=9D, = =20 que =C3=A9 o zero.<br> = <br> Como num ato de desespero frente= a crise de 2008, surgiu, ainda, o famigerado <strong>Quantitative Easing= </strong>.<br> = <br> Que tal se, em vez de simplesmente reduzir as taxas de juros e= esperar que os bancos comerciais fa=C3=A7am o mesmo, os BCs simplesmente= fossem l=C3=A1 e comprassem ativos por conta pr=C3=B3pria?<br> = <br> O que era par= a ser uma medida tempor=C3=A1ria, aparentemente virou uma nova arma dos B= ancos Centrais.<br> = <br> Tudo leva a crer que eles v=C3=A3o lan=C3=A7ar m=C3=A3o d= essa estrat=C3=A9gia para combater os efeitos (que os pr=C3=B3prios gover= nos causaram) do novo coronav=C3=ADrus.<br> = <br> Caso a muni=C3=A7=C3=A3o dessa no= va arma venha a se esgotar no futuro, a ala econ=C3=B4mica a favor da pol=C3=ADtica fiscal (investim= ento por parte do Estado) vai ganhar for=C3=A7a.<br> = <br> O p=C3=AAndulo pol=C3=AD= tico, que hoje aponta para os liberais-conservadores, vai migrar de volta= para os social-democratas.<br> = <br> De toda a hist=C3=B3ria, esse =C3=A9 o verdad= eiro perigo de longo prazo, na minha opini=C3=A3o.<br> = <br> A boa (ou m=C3=A1) not= =C3=ADcia =C3=A9 que n=C3=A3o tem absolutamente nada que voc=C3=AA possa = fazer sobre isso agora. Ningu=C3=A9m, ningu=C3=A9m mesmo, sabe como essa = quest=C3=A3o da pol=C3=ADtica monet=C3=A1ria vai se desenrolar.<br> = <br> Diferente= do especulador, o investidor trabalha de forma est=C3=B3ica e pragm=C3=A1= tica, lidando apenas com os fatos e com o que ele pode mudar.<br> = =20 <br> E quanto aos fatos, o que temos certeza at=C3=A9 agora =C3=A9: = <ul> = <li data-sel= ectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"3245" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly= ; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">Os Bancos = Centrais v=C3=A3o tentar conter o impacto de curto prazo reduzindo as tax= as de juros. Com juros menores, o custo de capital diminui e as a=C3=A7=C3= =B5es se valorizam.</li> = <li data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"f37a" style=3D= "mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-= size-adjust: 100%;">O Quantitative Easing est=C3=A1 sendo cogitado. Caso = isso ocorra, os bancos centrais v=C3=A3o comprar ativos diretamente. Entr= e esses ativos, est=C3=A3o ETFs, que s=C3=A3o compostos por a=C3=A7=C3=B5= es. As a=C3=A7=C3=B5es v=C3=A3o = subir por conta disso.</li> = </ul> = <p data-selectable-paragraph=3D"" id=3D"3852" style=3D"margin: 10p= x 0; padding: 0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100= %; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica= ; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; text-align: left;">A conclus=C3=A3o= me parece simples: a gripe =C3=A9 passageira, os juros, <strong>nem tant= o</strong>.<br> = <br> Quando a poeira baixar, o que vai restar =C3=A9 uma bolsa= mais barata, uma taxa de juros menor e empresas correndo atr=C3=A1s para= recuperar o resultado dos fat=C3=ADdicos primeiros trimestres.<br> = <br> O que= vai acontecer em seguida, voc=C3=AA j=C3=A1 deve imaginar.<br> = <br> = =20 <em>Leandro Siqueira</em= ><br> = <em>Cofundador do Edufinance</em></p> = </td> = </tr> = </tbody> </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![= endif]--> <!--[if mso]> = </tr> </table> <![endif]--> = </td> </tr> = </tbody> </tabl= e> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" = cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" class=3D"mcnImageBlock" style=3D"border-= collapse: collapse; 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-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; paddin= g-top: 9px;"> <!--[if mso= ]> <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D= "0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"width:100%;"> <tr> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> <td valign=3D= "top" width=3D"600" style=3D"width:600px;"> <![endif]--> = <table align=3D"left" border=3D"0" ce= llpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; mso= -table-lspace: 0pt; mso-table-rspace: 0pt; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -w= ebkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-width: 100%;" width=3D= "100%" =20 class=3D"mcnTextContentCo= ntainer"> <tbody> = <tr> = <td valign=3D"top" class=3D= "mcnTextContent" style=3D"mso-line-height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-ad= just: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-break: break-word; color= : #656565; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 150%; te= xt-align: center; padding-top: 0; padding-right: 18px; padding-bottom: 9p= x; padding-left: 18px;"> = <a href=3D"https://click.ml.mailersend.com/link/c/YT0xMz= Y5ODIyODMyODg3ODYzMjcyJmM9cjhmNCZlPTEwNjM1MjMyJmI9MzI1MTQ1MzMwJmQ9ZjBsNGI= 0Yg=3D=3D.r-PbqSGMexOzPlRQVGptm2a3K8L2RldpbL14nTGPhj4" style=3D"mso-line-= height-rule: exactly; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%; -webkit-text-size-adjus= t: 100%; color: #656565; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline;">Caso n=C3=A3o queira receber mais nossos e-mails, descadastre= -se.</a> </td= > </tr> = </tbody> = </table> = <!--[if mso]> </td> <![endif]--> = <!--[if mso]> </tr> </table> <![e= ndif]--> </td> = </tr> </tbo= dy> </table> = </td> </tr> </table> = <!--[if (gte mso 9)|(IE)]> </td> = </tr> </table> = <![endif]--> <!-- // END TEMPLATE --> </td> </tr> </table>= </center> </body> </html> --b1_b54dfe5ec5bea08806c8cf39fce47da3--
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